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ASCE 9780784404591 2000

ASCE 9780784404591 2000

$30.33

Using Meteorology Probability Forecasts in Operational Hydrology

Published By Publication Date Number of Pages
ASCE 2000 215
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Thomas Croley simplifies atmospheric predictions so that scientists and engineers can learn to predict weather-dependent phenomena and assess the risks associated with decisions in the construction and operation phases of water resources planning.

PDF Catalog

PDF Pages PDF Title
4 Table of Contents
6 Acknowledgments
8 Preface
10 PART I. PRACTICAL USAGE
12 Chapter 1. Introduction
Background
14 Structure of Book
16 Chapter 2. Probability and Estimation
A Probability Measure
Outcomes and Events
18 Random Variables and Distributions
19 Distribution Characteristics
20 Estimation
22 Quantile Estimation
24 Chapter 3. Outlook Definitions
Deterministic Outlooks
26 Probabilistic Outlooks
30 Chapter 4. Probabilistic Meteorology Outlook Examples
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Outlooks
36 NOAA 8–14 Day Event Probability Outlooks
38 NOAA Ensemble Event Probability Forecast Products
40 NOAA 1-Day Precipitation Event Probability Anomaly Outlooks
41 El Niño- and La Niña-Based Event Probability Outlooks
44 NOAA 6–10 Day Most-Probable Event Outlooks
46 Environment Canada (EC) Monthly Most-probable Event Outlook
47 EC Seasonal Most-probable Event Outlook
48 EC Extended Seasonal Most-Probable Event Outlooks
49 Other Most-Probable Event Outlooks
52 Chapter 5. Derivative Outlooks
Derivative Deterministic Outlooks
55 Derivative Probabilistic Outlooks
66 Step-By-Step Instructions
68 PART II. EXTENSIONS AND EXAMPLES
70 Chapter 6. Multiple Meteorology Event Probabilities
Considering Multiple Outlooks
72 An Example Multiple Outlook Equation Set
75 Solving the Set Equations
76 Using the Weights
79 Bayesian Forecasting
80 Incompatible Outlook Periods
81 Operational Hydrology Variations
82 Sampling and Modeling Independence
84 Chapter 7. Alternative Solutions
Redundancy and Infeasibility
86 Optimum Solution
91 Using the Weights
109 Ordering Priorities
110 Additional Methodology Considerations
112 Chapter 8. Mixing Most-Probable Meteorology Outlooks
Matching Most-Probable Events
114 Mixing Probabilistic Meteorology Outlooks
119 Mixed Multiple Outlooks Example
122 Eliminating Difficult Equations
125 Extensions
128 Chapter 9. Simultaneous Spatial Outlooks
Derivative-Forecast Methodology
132 Simultaneous Spatial Outlooks
142 Chapter 10. Improved Derivative Outlooks
Objective Reformulation
144 Alternative Optimization
145 Linear Programming
148 Example
153 Multiple Solutions
156 Chapter 11. Evaluations
An Example Deterministic Evaluation
159 An Example Probabilistic Evaluation
162 Appendix 1. Notation
168 Appendix 2. Software Documentation
Purpose
Conventions
169 Acquisition
Installation
170 Usage
186 Notes
187 Files
188 Additional Exercises
202 Appendix 3. Min Σ(w[sub(i)] – 1)[sup(2)] Sufficient Condition
Sufficiency for Equations (7-7)
204 Sufficiency for Equations (8-17)
206 References
208 Index
A
B
C
209 D
E
210 F
G
H
211 I
L
M
212 N
O
P
213 Q
R
S
214 T
215 U
V
W

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ASCE 9780784404591 2000
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